Water FractalTier 2
at 20251018 貓腳印-桃園店 DTR 店冠賽
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-2-1
overall winrate
68.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.1%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1435
· median 1435
· range 1435–1435
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1198
Q3 1394
1591
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
